Possible new blog - MotoPunter

Hello any hapless readers out there of my irregular contrivances.

This blog sort of died with the distinction between 'travelling' and 'motorcycling'. Why did I not realise that earlier?

Anyway, I thought you might like to know that I'm thinking quite seriously about starting a serious blog (you know, one for people to read... with stuff like its own URL, advertising, third-party readers...). About, as the title suggests, punting on the MotoGP (and, possibly, cricket in the off season - but I really don't know whether I can keep up with cricket, too much going on there....).

I got all inspired last weekend. There's nothing like losing a whole lot of money to make you want to do something else. And I've been filled with sadness at not having a MotoGP season to follow.

Anyway, I know this blog is a lonely voice in a noisy ocean. Maybe the next one won't be?


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@JohnSBaxter
2009-traveldiary.blogspot.com
2009-motorcyclist.blogspot.com

I don't owe Stoner a beer. Or a case. I owe him a beer truck.

As you may be aware, I do punt occasionally on the results of the MotoGP. And, more often than not I win out.

Today I had a good day. I had decided, on the way to the net parlour to actually work out my winnings (I only knew them, I thought, +/- $500, which you might have noticed is a fair margin of uncertainty), that I was going to tweet that "the only thing more absurd than the volume of my winnings is the consistency."

And the latter certainly is absurd. One sad night in Darwin I lost $450 on qualifying - since then, there has been one race and two race weekends, making five sessions all up, and I've come up positive in every one of them. No single win is really worthy of going to town over. Wagering is 'investment' after all, and what counts is long-term average returns. (Or, at least that's what I try to tell myself when I lose.) But having a run of five sessions in the black is impressive indeed, and well worthy of celebration!

The tweet isn't going to happen, however, because I didn't realise exactly what my position was... see with Betfair you can either match offered bets, or offer your own to match - a lot of uncertainty often hinges on the unmatched bets you have offered. So I am dropped in to check... - on four markets (winner w/o 'top four', podium, top 6 and overall win), I had four positive results! And on the major one - the overall win - I... well, lets not hark on about my richness, but I had more money behind Stoner than I realised (and at better odds!).

So, now that I have vented (it still doesn't feel real, and I still don't know how to celebrate), I will make a point. I've won, and done so surprisingly consistently, with a fair bit of luck, but even more with hard work. Or 'hard', I should say - really, it's easy to read timesheets.

Today I made about the most comprehensive readings of times of my punting history, and I think it is a good system - well worth repeating. For the sake of illustration, the notes I made thismorning:

FP1:
Stoner fastest partial
Rossi fastest early - first outing (tyre work)

Elias, Dovi good pace
(Capi, Kallio, Hayden okay)
Edwards, Verm not hot

FP2:
Stoner again fastest partial - possibly also best pace
Pedrosa no good runs
Rossi good pace (not as good as Stoner's)
Lorenzo okay late run

Edwards, Kallio (good part), de Pun, de Ang, Mel good pace
Elias, Dovi, Capi okay
Hayden, Verm poor
Esp improving

QP:
Stoner again good partial (3rd)
- can't guage pace (only did short runs) - but could be excellent (Qtime was really early)
Ros: 1.8
Lor: 2.3
Ped: 1.9

Dovi good part - pace? appears hot (long runs: 2.3/5/7)
Cap 2.5
El 2.8
H 2.9
dP 3.2
Ed? 2.4?/3.5
deA 2.8
Kal 2.4 ?? - superhot


Of course, the most decisive information was the times from the morning warmup - I didn't take notes on that because I bet in real time. But, if I had had more money with the bookies (as opposed to Betfair - an exchange), I might have made notes on that too. (Long story short - with bookies you don't make money on the frontrunners.)

So, rather than jest that you should give me your money to multiply, you should give it a go.

Go on!

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@JohnSBaxter
2009-traveldiary.blogspot.com
2009-motorcyclist.blogspot.com

Update: moving along; Pre-Mugello and Miller

Hello avid readers,

just quickly.

Keyboard has been a little tetchy - I've decided against doing a full article this week.

I will however point out that this weekend at Mugello is shaping up to be a great contest: FP1 sees Lorenzo, Rossi, Stoner in fairly close contention, Pedrosa a couple tenths down. Other Ducatis off the pace, good form from De Angelis, Edwards, Dovi.

WSBK at Miller (Salt Lake City) sees Spies not taking the dominance he might have hoped for, and championship leader Haga down the timesheets.

I have finally kicked off the season's punting. I've opened accounts (including sign-on bonuses) with Centrebet and Sportingbet, and transferred some liquid back into my Betfair account. They both seem to be offering decent odds - the former especially. I've bypassed a few generous sign-on offers from Sportsbet and ISABet on account of them offering appalling odds. MotoGP is obviously a fringe market and they appear to be taking upwards of 20%. My only concern is that I have been unable to work out the withdrawal requirements for these agents, both in general and on bonuses.

I have signed up with moto-live.com (ESPN) in the hope of some non-MotoGP.com - I missed FP1 because I couldn't get my account organised (important email went to spam). I couldn't get much easy info on content, but the selling point was the monthly subscription (10USD) - unlike MotoGP.coms huge upfront commitment. I'll be able to review soon.

Betting tips? win: Rossi has been quite short (<$2), partly deservingly, but the trend is exaggerated (it often is with popular riders). Stoner's offered some good long odds (which I have taken up), and I expect Pedrosa will after FP1 (not yet realised), though he's been too short so far. Qual: Rossi has been too short - yes it's his home track, but he's never had a qualifying advantage - but Betfair hasn't had a developed enough market to match anything.

Finally, http://spcbet.com/sportsbookreviews.html seems to offer some good agent reviews, but Idon't know that many of them will be accessible from Australia.

Over and out.

--------
@JohnSBaxter
2009-traveldiary.blogspot.com
2009-motorcyclist.blogspot.com
jsbaxter.com.au (coming soon!)

Getting down and dirty: making racing financial

Another Friday night, another practice session - another blog post. I will assume that you have all been doing your homework - reading up on all the racing news with the leads I posted before the last round - and are all in the know about the current racing situation. I needn't therefore mention that MotoGP is racing on Sunday at Le Mans (Fox3 10pm AEST), and WSBK at Kayalami (RSA; Fox3 from 11:15). And it is no doubt obvious that these are both going to be stellar affairs.

MotoGP FP1 starts in 52 minutes, btw.

Being all the more cluey, however, I think it is time we all put a couple of dollars behind our opinions to see how well they really stack up.  And to do that, you are going to need to find betting agents.

There is a huge variety of online betting agents out there, deciding where to place your bet can be just as hard as picking the appropriate odds on a de Puniet top-6 finish.  Fortunately, there are a few things which you can use to narrow down the options and to find the bet which is right for you.

Odds Comparisons

If you Google you are likely to get returned a broad number odds comparison sites: realistically, there are only one or two which are worth checking (many are obviously duplicates, some offer mainly sites which aren't any good for Australians, and some just aren't good). The only one I have bookmarked is http://betfinder.bestbetting.com/motor-sport/moto-gp/

Checking out the odds grid it becomes apparent that there are some quite considerable differences with different agents, but there is also another trend that you will probably notice:

Betfair

offers awesome odds.

Betfair is not a bookmaker as much as a forum for punters to match each others' bets.  Betfair don't employ statisticians to make their odds, nor do they risk their own cash - as a result, instead of an average 15% buffer on odds, they take 5%.  The end result: 10% better odds, which more often than not is the difference between winning and loosing.

(NOTE, however, that this is calculated after the fact, so quoted figures are artificially inflated by 5% over a bookmaker's offerings. On the other hand, what you have is only what hasn't yet been matched: you can typically offer at least 5% better than what is available, which may or may not get matched)

(Another note: I have heard Betfair as quoted averaging 20% better odds. While I am sceptical of the comment, the difference could be even greater than I suggest.)

The downside is that there is usually little worth investigating in non-popular markets: without a few hundred or thousand people already betting on a market what's on offer is typically poor.

Betfair is a little bit different, and I will not be able to describe it without really going into depth: all I can say is that if you're looking to punt online, you need to check it out.

Special Offers

Special offers can make a 10% difference in available odds look paltry: many agents offer very substantial signup bonuses in many different forms - I am looking at a Sportingbet offer which amounts to 334% on an initial deposit.  Before signing up with an agent, Google them for offers.

Every current offer that I am aware of is also listed, with much kindness, on http://www.way2bet.com.au/page/bookie-offers , but there are always short-term offers going around.

Other things to check

The most annoying screening factor is that you need to be able to use the agent from your country of origin.  Often, there will be nothing suggesting it is illegal, impossible, or even difficult for you to use a site, but when it comes time to trying to take advantage of that golden odd or fantastic offer you painstakingly come to the conclusion that it is not possible.  In my experience, it is usually difficult to transfer money overseas (even if they claim they accept AUD, or your credit card), and even more commonly impossible to transfer it back.  These facts are never listed anywhere - that would be too convenient. CHECK before uploading your worthy dollars to a company which doesn't have processes to give it back. Companies will list their transaction methods, and if you aren't 100% that you can use those methods then don't.

Also while we are in the ballpark, double check what fees and charges apply for transfers in and out (usually credit is faster but more expensive than direct deposit/BPay).

Suggestions/Notes

In conclusion, a few agents which are either specifically Australian, or have local branches - I don't have experience with many of them, but I will be rectifying that over the coming months:

sports.betfair.com

if you only use one site, make it betfair

centrebet.com

I've almost opened an account with these guys before - good deposit options and appear to run better-than average margins.

sportingbet.com.au

sportsbet.com.au

two other large competitors I don't know much about - but see their special offers (see above)

racingodds.com.au

I have a job application currently being considered with these guys, I couldn't leave them out.

tab.com.au

Appear to offer industry-worst margins, a largely archaic online wagering system (you can only register in business hours!?), and no... something else. Have, however, offered some pretty bad spreads in my experience = good betting opportunities.

In Summary: Get out and do it

If you are going to get around the betting scene, make the jump and do it seriously - not something I have done yet.  There is no use checking the odds on a site if you don't have money with them.  Not only could a transfer prove difficult, it will usually take some time too - long enough for the winds to blow and that bargain to deteriorate into a lemon.

Dammit!  I am missing FP1 and need to get ready to head out (to party!). Not that it matters - I still haven't fired up any accounts for this season.  But I will, soon!

And just between me and you, I think I can make more $$ than you can.  In the next few posts I'll give you a bit of an introduction into how I'll do it.

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@JohnSBaxter
2009-traveldiary.blogspot.com
2009-motorcyclist.blogspot.com
jsbaxter.com.au (coming soon!)

2009 - a Moto-Racing Junkie's Introduction

What do you know - the 2009 racing season is well underway and I haven't posted a single entry on it.  Well, while I have your attention, I will make grounds rectifying this deficiency.

MotoGP - the 'big league', the 'premier class', the 'F1 of motorbikes' - is a bit of a late starter.  The first round of the year was a couple of weekends ago in Qatar.  A relatively novel calendar entry, the track is in the middle of the desert, and runs in the middle of the night (for telecoverage reasons I believe). In the end, it was delayed a day for novel reasons as well - rain!  Rain is wet by day, but under lights it was an unprecedented danger.

In the end, the inevitable occured one day late: Stoner won, Rossi was the only who kept up the appearance of competition, and Someone Else came third (Lorenzo in the end - third-place qualifier, and the only real expected pointy-end challenger with Pedrosa injured).  Pedrosa and Hayden struggled with injuries; Edwards and Dovi showed signs they need to be taken seriously; De Angelis surprised everyone by staying on the bike (and got a top-six place as a result); Vermeulen and Kallio will be looking to build on positive results; the rest were uninspiring, in particular Gibernau, Melandri and rookie Takahashi (wtf is he in MotoGP for?).

Stoner has dominated preseason testing and round 1 in no uncertain fashion, and should he manage to shake off the pressure from Rossi and his inner deamons the result will be emphatic. There is little doubt of a top-two result for the Great Man Rossi, and it feels like the rest of the field are fighting for third place.  Dovi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Edwards have once again had positive starts, and Kallio, De Angelis and both Suzuki riders (the other Aussie Vermeulen and Capirossi) are making habits of exceeding expectation.

The field heads to Motegi (Japan) this weekend for round two, and the expectation is that Stoner will be setting the pace come Friday afternoon.  Fortunately for the Aussie contingent we have a rare afternoon timeslot for this round, so take advantage of it while you can and get yourself back into the swing of things (I assume nobody got up to watch the 4am Tuesday Qatar race?).

Far as the 125s and 250s go... well I haven't paid much attention to the 125s yet, but the 250s Qatar race was gripping - and with some bad results from big names the championship is alive and kicking.  Watch Barbera (first at Qatar), and a few MotoGP hopefulls in the making in Bautista, Simoncelli (2008 250 champion), di Meglio (125 champ was it, or was that T?), Pasini and Talmasci, also family names like Faubel, Pesek, Debon, Locatelli and Luthi, hoping to finally put a good season together.  Riders like Cluzel (2nd at Qatar) and Wilairot (Indonesian/Thai/something) are always around to spice up the standings.

The World Superbike championship (WSBK - production-based machines) is the dark night in a sense.  When it is not being led by an Aussie (Bayliss or Corser in recent years) it receives little public attention and irregular television screenings.  It has a cult-like status among racing fans, however, many of whom much prefer it to the occasionally urbane chastity of the world's fastest bikes - and for good reason.  I personally am a little turned off by relatively unappealing machinery (GP bikes are sexxy), but they are fast no matter what way you look at it, and the racing is always hot. Round 1 was at Phillip Island this year, and those of us lucky enough to attend enjoyed some rivetting racing.

We are much further into the WSBK season, with round 3 up this weekend (the Netherlands, somewhere - presumably Assen?), and some solid headway into the championship (with two races a round there have actually been six races already).  'Nitro' Noriyki Haga is opening up a worrying lead over American Ben Spies (for a number of years relatively uncontested 'AMA' American SBK champion - and head-turning MotoGP wild card), who has often looked the goods with some very fast times and good consistency.  His results have been more explosive than Nitro Nori's, however, with a number (three? or was it only two?) crashes interspercing some convincing wins.  Neukirchner and Fabrizio have wed some good times with surprising consistency to round the top four, as a few big names appear to be struggling on new machinery (Corser and Xaus on BMW, Nakano and Biaggi on Aprilia).  A second Aussie in Broc Parkes is struggling to make much of an impact on a green-looking Kawasaki, and I just noticed John Hopkins with one more championship point on a Honda (that's how bad his season has been).

If anything, the world's best racing is probably to be seen in the World Supersport (WSS - 600cc productions) races.  You have to hunt to get news on this championship, but if you can get into it the close racing and strong Aussie contingent (Andrew Pitt and Ant West tied for 3rd with French Laverty, Aitchison 7th and McCoy the leading member of an ininspiring two-man Triumph lineup) should prove rewarding.

On which note, why the hell haven't I been following it?

Somebody tell me how the Australian Superbike Championship is going, because I would like to think that somebody pays attention to it.  I know a few who enjoy watching the racing (sporadic coverage on Ten/SBS I believe), and many pay attention to the results, but it's sad it is such a private series in a country with such a strong auto-racing interest.

Anyway, that's my start-of-season rant.  I won't be investing heaps of time into writing about these series, because frankly I don't see the point in doing what others are already doing - and much better than I ever would.

I will make the effort, however, to write a few articles over the next few weeks to help you along the way.  I will try to make these weekly commitments.

First up, I'm planning an article on where you can get your racing-info fixes - the hot blogs, useful websites and timing and video hotspots; if I still haven't given up after that I will tell you a little about one of the ways I personally enjoy a race weekend, by putting money on the line - both the places to do it, and a few of the tips I have learnt to make the most of it (I averaged 5% returns per round of the MotoGP for most of 2008 - a hell of a lot better than my stock portfolio).

Until next week.

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@JohnSBaxter
2009-traveldiary.blogspot.com
2009-motorcyclist.blogspot.com
jsbaxter.com.au (coming soon!)